I take full responsibility for how the last two weeks! It's absolutely inexcusable to have that many games and be bad in many of them. If you know me long enough you know I take this very seriously. You know it hurts when I lose, because I am betting big money on these games. I'm not going to get into last week's results. I will tell you this week will be conservative and all of the plays may not come tonight like they typically do. With all of that said you all have my full attention and dedication and I look forward to profiting the next few weeks before heading into bowl season. Good Luck,

Freddy Wills

Navy -2 1.1% Free Play
10-1 ATS on Free Plays this year with another win last week on North Carolina -10![/]

Navy knows what is at stake here and that’s a trip to the AAC Championship game. I think we are getting value here with Navy due to Tulsa’s domination over East Carolina and recent success against 3 really bad teams in a row. Tulsa actually got a bit lucky last week as East Carolina’s QB got hurt very early in that game, but they still managed to throw for 474 yards with a backup QB. There is no doubt that Tulsa’s defense is more experienced and better than last year. One of their coaches used to coach with Navy, but that was back in 1999 and his scheme running a 5-2 defense did not help last year, and I don’t see it helping this year. This is a team that has given up big numbers to some bad offenses and Navy has one of the best offenses that Tulsa will see all year.

Navy on the other hand will give up their fair share of points in this one, but overall they are at home, well coached and they know what is on the line, a conference championship. Navy under Will Worth at QB has been excellent since taking over early in the season when Tago Smith went down. He has this offense playing just as well as last year despite the conference being more used to the triple option. What this game really comes down to his how each team does in key situations like the red zone and third down, and not turning the ball over. I give Navy an edge in all categories.

Here are the numbers. Navy has a 76% red zone TD% compared to Tulsa’s 59% and on the defensive side Navy has limited opponents to just 24 red zone attempts and a 58% success rate and have given up only 12 rushing TD’s all season, 4 at home. Tulsa on the other hand has allowed 38 attempts, and 60% TD’s, and have allowed 13 rushing TD’s in their 4 road games alone. I think Navy can control the game here as they average 35 minutes at home while Tulsa averages 28 on the road, and they will be better in these key situations which should give them a win.

Where to find Freddy?